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Prediction for CME (2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-18T18:09Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44032/-1
CME Note: Halo CME first seen to the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 as a halo in later frames. This CME was initially covered by a routine scheduled downlink data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 which began at 2026-01-18T18:00Z but LASCO data became fully available later. The source of this CME is a long duration X1.9 flare from Active Region 14341 (S15E20), which peaked at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, with some possible contribution from Active Region 14345 (S16E27). This flare is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131 and the associated eruption is seen as a wide region of dimming and field line opening in SDO AIA 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, as well as very high and large area post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94, 304 and 193. Ejecta is seen in SDO AIA 193 and in STEREO A EUV 304 imagery (southwardly directed off the SE limb as seen from STEREO A). STEREO A 195 also sees it as a large opening of field lines close to the limb, around the equator. Arrival at L1: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from ~6nT at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to ~86nT at 2026-01-19T18:59Z. The solar wind data is likely contaminated due to a known issue with the ACE spacecraft during solar energetic particle events, however solar wind data returns around 2026-01-19T21:18Z measuring ~1000 km/s. Density increased from ~3 p/cc at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to 29 p/cc at 2026-01-19T19:02Z. Temperature observed an increase from ~65,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:15Z to ~900,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:23Z. A large southern coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on 2026-01-15 was located to the south and west of the eruptive source for CME: 2026-01-18T18:09Z (S15E20), and while no distinct coronal high speed stream signature was identified within this arrival signature the location and size of the coronal hole may likely have influenced this CME as it traveled to and arrived at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-19T18:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-20T02:38Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-18T21:39:21Z
## Message ID: 20260118-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES. 

Start time of the event: 2026-01-18T18:09Z.

Estimated speed: ~1431 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -27/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno, Solar Orbiter, and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow).  The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2026-01-29T16:01Z, Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-19T18:15Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-20T17:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-20T02:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-8 (severe).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260118_201400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.9 flare from Active Region 14341 (S15E20) with ID 2026-01-18T17:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-18T18:09Z (see notification 20260118-AL-004).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Lead Time: 21.27 hour(s)
Difference: -7.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-18T21:39Z

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